Test your own judgment

Your judgment has predictable weaknesses. You can favor people you like, defend a past commitment, or overvalue information that comes easily to mind. Success can make these habits harder to notice. Use other perspectives to test the decisions most exposed to your blind spots.

Envy and jealousy can also distort a decision. Another person’s success can change what you want without changing what your company needs. Notice when comparison replaces your own reasoning about the useful next step.

A short decision record can help. State what you believe, why you believe it, and what result you expect. Review it when evidence arrives. This separates the quality of your reasoning from the luck of one outcome.

For an important decision, record:

• The facts you observed.
• The assumptions you still need to test.
• The result you expect.
• The main ways the decision could fail.
• The evidence that would change your mind.
• When the result arrives, compare it with the record. Keep the learning even when the outcome disappoints you.